The Future of Electronic Commerce

Several economic, technological, and societal trends impact EC and shape its direction. For example, most experts agree that the shift from EC to mobile commerce is inevitable. Also, many believe in the future of social commerce, as a major component of e-commerce (e.g., see Turban et al. 2015). There will be a surge in the use of e-commerce in developing countries (mostly thanks to smartphones and tablets as well as e-payment systems). E-commerce will win its battle against conventional retailing (see the Amazon vs. Best Buy discussion in Chapter 3). Finally, e-commerce will increase its global reach.

EC will impact some industries more than others. This impact is changing with time. For example,

major impacts in the past 5 years were felt in travel, retail, stock brokering, and banking. Next, according to Hiner (2011) are: movies: health- care, book publishing, and electronic payments. For an interesting review see Solis (2012).

Today’s predictions about the future size of EC, provided by respected analysts such as ComScore, eMarketer.com, and Forrester, vary. For a list of sites that provide such predictions and other statistics on EC, see Table 3.1 (p. xxx).

The number of Internet users worldwide was estimated to be around 2.6 billion in winter 2014, up from 2.4 billion in 2012 (see internetworld- stats.com). With more people on the Internet EC will increase.

EMarketer forecasted that almost 73% of all Internet users in the US would shop online in 2011 (eMarketer 2011). The estimate for February 2014 is over 85. EC growth would come not only from B2C, but also from B2B and from newer applications such as e-government, e-learning, B2E, social commerce, and c-commerce. The total volume of EC has been growing every year by 10–16% in spite of the failures of individual companies and initiatives and the economic slowdown.

The rising price of petroleum, along with repercussions of the 2008–2012 financial meltdown, has motivated people to shop online and look for bargains where price comparison is easy and fast (e.g., try to find the price of an item on Amazon.com). Another important factor is the increase in mobile devices and especially smartphones. According to Mashable (2012) there will be more than smartphones than humans on the plant soon.

According to Gartner Inc. (2012), smartphone sales rose more than 42% in the 2nd quarter of 2012; this trend is forecasted to continue through the next few years.

Gartner Inc. (2011) also predicts that by 2015, companies will generate 50% of Web sales through their social presence and mobile applications.

The future of EC depends of technological, organizational, and societal trends. Piastro (2010) lists the top 10 trends that are shaping the future of e-commerce and Gartner Inc., publishes a list of the “Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends’

Source:

Efraim Turban, David King, Jae Kyu Lee, Ting-Peng Liang, Deborrah C. Turban (2015), Electronic Commerce A Managerial and Social Networks Perspective