Indonesia is one of the world’s largest countries by population. With more than 280 million people, it should have an enormous pool of talent capable of supporting economic growth, technological development, and innovation.

But population size alone does not guarantee competitiveness.

As the global economy becomes increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence, data, advanced manufacturing, digital platforms, biotechnology, and other knowledge intensive industries, countries are competing not only for investment and markets, but also for people.

The important question for Indonesia is therefore not simply whether it has enough people.

It is whether Indonesia can develop, attract, connect, and retain enough highly skilled people to move the country higher in the global value chain.

A useful way to understand this challenge comes from Stanford sociologist Gi Wook Shin and researcher Haley Gordon.

Their Talent Portfolio Theory explains that countries can develop human capital through four main strategies: brain train, brain gain, brain circulation, and brain linkage. Rather than seeing talent only through the traditional debate about brain drain, the framework suggests that countries can build a portfolio of different approaches to talent development.

These four ideas offer an interesting way to think about Indonesia’s future in the digital economy.

Brain Train: Build Talent at Home

The first strategy is brain train.

Brain train means developing talent inside the country through schools, universities, vocational education, research institutions, professional development, and industry.

Japan has historically relied heavily on this approach. It built strong domestic institutions capable of producing engineers, scientists, managers, and researchers who supported the country’s industrial development.

For Indonesia, this is perhaps the most fundamental challenge.

The issue should not be framed as whether Indonesians are intelligent enough. Intelligence is not something that can simply be judged from population statistics.

What can be measured more clearly is educational performance.

According to the OECD’s PISA 2022 results, only 18 percent of Indonesian students reached at least Level 2 proficiency in mathematics. The figure was 25 percent in reading and 34 percent in science. Almost no Indonesian students reached the highest proficiency levels in mathematics, reading, or science.

These numbers do not mean Indonesian students lack ability.

They indicate that Indonesia still faces a significant challenge in turning potential into demonstrated knowledge and skills.

This distinction is important.

A country may have millions of talented young people, but without strong schools, teachers, universities, research environments, and opportunities to apply what they learn, much of that potential may remain underdeveloped.

For the digital economy, brain train becomes even more important.

Businesses increasingly need people who understand data, artificial intelligence, information systems, cybersecurity, user experience, finance, digital marketing, and technology driven business models.

Developing these capabilities cannot begin only when someone enters the workforce. It requires a learning ecosystem that develops problem solving, communication, creativity, analytical thinking, and technological literacy from an early age.

Brain Gain: Bring Global Talent In

The second strategy is brain gain.

Instead of relying completely on domestic talent, countries can attract skilled people from other parts of the world.

Countries such as Australia and Singapore have used international talent as part of their economic development strategies. Skilled professionals, researchers, entrepreneurs, and specialists can bring knowledge that may not yet exist at sufficient scale domestically.

For Indonesia, brain gain could become particularly relevant in rapidly developing industries.

Consider artificial intelligence.

Building a strong AI ecosystem requires more than people who know how to use generative AI applications. Countries need researchers, machine learning engineers, data scientists, computing infrastructure specialists, product developers, entrepreneurs, and business leaders who understand how to turn AI into economic value.

Developing all of these capabilities domestically takes time.

Attracting experienced international specialists can help shorten the learning process, especially when they work together with Indonesian professionals and institutions.

The important principle is knowledge transfer.

Foreign expertise creates greater long term value when Indonesian employees, researchers, students, and companies learn from it.

Brain gain therefore should not simply mean importing workers.

It should mean importing knowledge and creating an environment where that knowledge spreads.

Brain Circulation: Learn Abroad, Bring Knowledge Home

The third strategy is brain circulation.

China provides one of the clearest examples.

Following the beginning of its economic reforms in 1978, China sent large numbers of students abroad to universities in countries with advanced scientific and technological capabilities.

According to China’s Ministry of Education, 8.88 million Chinese students studied overseas between 1978 and 2024.

Among the 7.43 million who had completed their studies, approximately 6.44 million returned to China.

That is an enormous circulation of human capital.

Students did not simply receive degrees overseas.

Many gained access to research laboratories, international companies, new technologies, professional networks, and different ways of thinking.

When they returned, they brought part of that knowledge and experience with them.

Over decades, this circulation contributed to a much larger scientific, technological, and entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Indonesia already has the foundations of a similar mechanism through LPDP.

Since the scholarship program began in 2013, LPDP has supported tens of thousands of Indonesians pursuing higher education.

By November 2025, LPDP reported 58,360 scholarship recipients, including 31,572 alumni and 19,686 students who were still studying.

By May 2026, the figure had increased to 58,749 scholarship recipients, with 34,334 having completed their studies.

LPDP has also begun placing greater emphasis on STEM fields and strategic industries as part of Indonesia’s longer term human capital strategy.

These are significant achievements.

But Indonesia has more than 280 million people.

If the country wants to accelerate its movement into advanced industries, the discussion may eventually need to move beyond whether Indonesians should study abroad to a larger question:

At what scale should Indonesia circulate its talent globally?

Imagine if hundreds of thousands more Indonesians gained experience in the world’s leading universities, research laboratories, technology companies, startups, financial institutions, and manufacturing centers over the next two decades.

The potential flow of knowledge could be enormous.

But sending people abroad is only half of brain circulation.

The country must also give them reasons to return.

Researchers need laboratories and funding.

Entrepreneurs need access to investment.

Engineers need challenging projects.

Professionals need competitive career opportunities.

Talented people are more likely to return when they believe they can continue growing after they come home.

Without such an environment, brain circulation can become brain drain.

Brain Linkage: Talent Does Not Always Have to Come Home

But what if people decide not to return?

That leads to the fourth strategy: brain linkage.

This approach recognizes that talent can contribute to a country without necessarily living there.

India is often used as an important example.

Large numbers of Indian professionals have built careers in technology, research, medicine, finance, entrepreneurship, and management outside India.

Their value to India is not limited to money sent home.

They also create networks.

A technology executive working in the United States can connect Indian businesses with global companies.

A scientist overseas can collaborate with researchers at an Indian university.

An entrepreneur can introduce investors to startups at home.

An engineer can mentor younger engineers thousands of kilometers away.

Knowledge can move even when people do not.

This is particularly relevant in a digital economy because distance matters less than it did in the past.

Collaboration can happen through online meetings, professional communities, research platforms, open source projects, investment networks, and digital businesses operating across borders.

Indonesia has substantial potential here.

Discussions about Indonesia’s diaspora sometimes dramatically underestimate its size. Depending on the definition being used, government estimates have placed the Indonesian diaspora in the millions rather than merely hundreds of thousands.

This means Indonesians working abroad should not automatically be considered a loss.

An Indonesian AI researcher in the United States, an engineer in Germany, a financial professional in Singapore, or an entrepreneur in Australia may still contribute to Indonesia.

They might mentor Indonesian students.

They might invest in Indonesian startups.

They might connect companies with international markets.

They might create joint research projects.

They might help Indonesian professionals enter international organizations.

They may even eventually return.

Brain linkage changes the question from:

“Why don’t they come home?”

to:

“How can Indonesia stay connected with them?”

That is a very different way of thinking about brain drain.

Indonesia Needs a Talent Portfolio

The most interesting lesson from Talent Portfolio Theory is that these four strategies do not need to compete with one another.

Countries can use several at the same time.

Indonesia can strengthen brain train by improving schools, universities, research institutions, vocational education, and professional development.

It can pursue brain gain by bringing international experts, researchers, entrepreneurs, and professionals into Indonesian institutions and industries.

It can expand brain circulation by sending more Indonesians into world class universities, companies, and research centers and creating opportunities for them to return.

And it can strengthen brain linkage by building stronger relationships with Indonesians who choose to develop their careers abroad.

This portfolio approach may be especially important because technological change is happening extremely quickly.

Artificial intelligence provides a good example.

A university curriculum can take years to design and implement, while AI technologies can change within months.

Companies therefore cannot depend only on formal education.

Universities cannot work in isolation from industry.

Governments cannot assume all knowledge will be created domestically.

And countries cannot expect every talented citizen overseas to return permanently.

Knowledge today moves through networks.

Talent strategies should do the same.

Why This Matters for Digital Business

This discussion is not only about national education policy.

It is directly connected to business.

Companies compete for talented people.

Startups depend on founders, engineers, designers, marketers, financial specialists, and product managers.

Digital transformation depends on employees who understand both technology and business.

Artificial intelligence creates value only when people know where and how to apply it.

Data becomes valuable when someone can turn it into a business decision.

Technology itself therefore does not create transformation.

People do.

This is why human capital should be considered a central part of digital business strategy.

At the BINUS International Digital Business Program, this intersection is particularly relevant because the program brings together Business, Information Systems, and Finance as its three main pillars. The objective is not simply to teach students how digital technology works, but also how technology can be used to improve business performance, create new opportunities, analyze information, and build digital ecosystems.

Courses related to digital technology, artificial intelligence, database systems, analytics, user experience, digital operations, finance, and entrepreneurship are therefore part of a larger question:

What kinds of people will Indonesia need to compete in the next economy?

Universities play an important role in answering that question.

But universities cannot do it alone.

Industry, government, schools, research institutions, international partners, entrepreneurs, and the Indonesian diaspora all form part of the same talent ecosystem.

Population Is Potential, Not a Guarantee

Indonesia’s population gives the country an extraordinary opportunity.

But population should be understood as potential rather than an automatic advantage.

Having 280 million people does not automatically produce 280 million globally competitive workers, entrepreneurs, researchers, and professionals.

Human capital must be developed.

Knowledge must circulate.

Expertise must be attracted.

Networks must be created.

And talented people need environments in which they can continue growing.

The global competition for the future will therefore not only be a competition over artificial intelligence, semiconductors, digital platforms, electric vehicles, or advanced manufacturing.

Behind all of those industries is another competition.

It is a competition for talent.

Indonesia already has many of the pieces.

It has a large young population. It has universities. It has scholarship programs such as LPDP. It has growing technology companies. It has a global diaspora. And it has an increasingly connected digital economy.

The next challenge is connecting those pieces into a much larger talent ecosystem.

Because Indonesia’s greatest resource may ultimately not be what lies beneath its ground.

It may be what exists inside the minds of its people.